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Location: St. Louis, Missouri, United States

Friday, December 03, 2004

Ukraine Pulls Out of Iraq

Here is a very disappointing developement on the Ukrainian front:

Ukraine parliament demands withdrawal of troops from Iraq
2 hours, 1 minute ago

World - AFP
KIEV (AFP) - Ukraine's parliament voted to demand the withdrawal of the 1,600 Ukrainian troops from Iraq (news - web sites), the Interfax news agency reported.
AFP/File Photo

The lawmakers voted by 257 out of 397 present in the 450-member chamber to ask outgoing President Leonid Kuchma to pull out the Ukrainian contingent serving in the US-led coalition force in Iraq.
Both of the rival candidates to replace Kuchma, pro-Western opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko and pro-Russian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, have said the troops should return but the opposition is pushing for a faster withdrawal timetable.

Perhaps our friendly relationship with Prince Putin has soured the Ukrainian Parliament. Perhaps they think they are going to need all their troops at home to defend the homeland. Any way you slice it, we can ill-afford to lose this many troops before the Iraqi election, and I am sure the Left in This Country will tout this as more proof that ours is a coalition of the coerced and bribed (they will hype this pullout but will conveniently forget that the Ukrainians joined us voluntarily before the outcome was so certain.) Disappointing though this may be we should thank our Ukrainian allies-they fought and sacrificed alongside us without the promise of any real material gain for themselves. Too bad all of our traditional ``allies`` couldn`t do the same.

We have got to develop a better strategic policy in regards to the former Soviet satellites. The unBearable Russians want to regain their dominion over these Nations, and we must resist them on this. We certainly don`t want to reignite the Cold War, but we cannot allow ourselves to fiddle while Kiev burns. The Russians have proven themselves dubious allies at best; why should we allow them to rebuild their Empire?

Russia is an enormous, flat plain broken by the lilliputian Yural mountains in the east, the rather formidable Caucasus in the south, and facing the plains of Poland in the west. Throughout history the Russians have been invaded from all directions; first by Vikings (the Verangians), then by Mongols, Teutons (Germans), French, Germans (again) etc. There are no useful natural boundaries to protect Russia. The Teutonic Knights taught the Russians (and Ukrainians) a valuable lesson; they invaded from the west in response to an appeal for help against the Golden Horde. (This is the famous Battle on the Ice in which Prince Alexander defeated them on the frozen Neva river). The Russians suffered under Tatar domination, and Moscow rose to ascendancy as a patron of the Mongols. Moscow adopted the ruthless oriental despotism of their overlords, and came to understand the iron boot. That is why the Russians seek dominion over ByeloRussia, Ukraine, the Baltic States, Georgia, etc. They must control their borders. It is simply irrational to the Russian mind to allow others control of the border regions. The only safety from invasion, as the Russians see it, is to dominate their neighbors.

Which is why we will have to practice a continual policy of containment on the Russians. Russia will always push to expand; we have to chop them back when they do. Think of Russia as a ficas; fine in its place but it has to be cut back once in a while or it will grow all over you. We need to have policies in place which help the hedging process without ruining our relations with them. The mistake we made was assuming free elections in Russia meant they were becoming like us. You can`t assume that. Expansionism is part of the Russian character, and our policies need to reflect that reality while shepherding the fledgling democracy.

The Ukrainian government seems to understand our failure of policy in their regards. It`s easy to talk about these matters far from the battlefield, but when you have Russian Special Ops soldiers infiltrated into your country to intimidate voters it is another matter, and pulling your troops out of Iraq and bringing them home to defend your homeland makes all the sense in the world from a Ukrainian standpoint. Our policies simply did not inspire adequate confidence on the part of the Ukrainians. They can`t count on the U.S. Cavalry charging over the hill to save them from Russia.

The Bush administration needs to develop better, and more comprehensive policies for dealing with Russia and the former satellite countries.




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1 Comments:

Blogger Aussiegirl said...

Tim -- I am continually astonished at your command of history and ability to recount events in such a way that it all seems to hold together and make sense. I must admit, even though this is my area of the world, that my head spins as I try to keep straight all the different groups that have laid waste to Ukraine over the centuries. But your analysis of the Ukrainian situation is correct. Let me also add that in addition to needing the troops at home, a more important factor is why they were sent there in the first place by Kuchma. At the time that Kuchma committed these troops (whose primary task was to help in the dismantling of WMD, as Ukrainian forces had experience of this when they dismantled their own Soviet-era nukes and other relics of the Cold War) he did so as a sop to the U.S. after being caught red-handed selling dangerous weapons technology to terrorist regimes and to Saddam. In order to quell threats from the U.S. about changes in relations, Kuchma opted to send a small contingent of Ukrainian troops to Iraq. The troop deployment has always been unpopular in Ukraine, as this kind of terrorism seemed remote from their immediate national concerns. In addition there was always lingering doubt in Ukraine about the intentions of the U.S. towards Ukraine, as Kyiv always took a back-seat to improved relations with Moscow. Be that as it may, the troop deployment became a political football, with Yushchenko promising to withdraw the troops as a contrasting policy to that of Kuchma. In today's Washington Post article, Yushchenko lays out a rather more nuanced position in regards to Ukrainian support of the efforts in Iraq, which I think clarifies the real policy much better. All will be clearer when Ukraine has an honestly elected democratic administration which can become a legitimate player on the international scene.

7:56 PM  

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